The projections by municipal planning area (MPA) and regional analysis zone (RAZ) were prepared to be consistent with the July 1, 2018 population estimates and have been prepared for July 1st of the base year 2018 and projected for July 1st of 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2055.
The 2018 housing and population base was developed by aggregating 2013-2017 American Community Survey data to traffic analysis zones (TAZs). Census place mismatches were corrected in this process and are reflected in the base 2018 MPA and RAZ numbers.
The population projections are for resident population only and do not include non-resident seasonal or transient population.
The projections are required to use the latest census as the base. The 2013-2017 ACS data were released in January 2019. Subsequent to the release, the Arizona State Demographer prepared a new set of Maricopa County projections consistent with the 2018 population estimate. These county projections were recommended for approval by the MAG Population Technical Advisory Committee (POPTAC) in January 2019 and the Management Committee in February 2019. The projections were approved by the Regional Council in February 2019.
The projections include the Maricopa County portions of Peoria and Wickenburg only with the exception of the jurisdiction level numbers, which do include the population in Yavapai County for Wickenburg and Peoria.
The projections were based upon the latest version of each member agency’s general plan and known developments. These plans are subject to change.
The databases and assumptions upon which the projections are based have been reviewed by MAG member agencies, revised by MAG staff based on input received and approved by members of the MAG POPTAC.
The projections are based upon previous review and local insight by members of the MAG POPTAC.
The projections should be used with caution. They are subject to change as a result of fluctuation in economic and development conditions, local development policies and updated data.